Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
